Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
