The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.
Polling Trends and Political Landscape
Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.
However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.
Key Contenders and Forecasts
At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.
Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.
The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.
Voting Process and Political Division
Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.
This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.
Post-Election Scenarios
The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.
While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.
Election Day Details
Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.
Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.
