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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However the current race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and recent strugglers improving collectively. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still