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A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, while the wins have accumulated.

Per Opta, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.